Tesla (TSLA) Still Worth More Than Toyota, Porsche, Mercedes, & Hyundai Combined

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Tesla’s stock price and market cap have fallen sharply this year, due to slightly stagnant sales (rather than 50% year-over-year growth), rumors of a cheaper Tesla being canceled, and the slow pace of the Cybertruck (and Expression). . Tesla Full Self Driving (Supervised) has been greatly improved with the 12th version, but there is still great concern that it is far from the capabilities of robotaxi (Elon Musk seems to disagree, but he seems to disagree for about 8 years, since 2016). However, there is still a lot of faith in Tesla’s continued growth, in Tesla AI, in Tesla robots, and in Tesla in general – especially on Wall Street.

Don’t believe me on that last part? Just look at the truth in the headline: Tesla still has a market cap that’s greater than that of the next three automakers combined, and you can even throw in Hyundai or Kia or a couple of other manufacturers and Tesla is still at the top of the market. hat

If you want a more American perspective, Tesla is worth more than Ford, GM, Stellantis, Honda, Volkswagen, BMW, BYD, Hyundai, and Kia combined. That is a very good comparison. TSLA > Ford + GM + Stellantis + Honda + Volkswagen + BMW + BYD + Hyundai + Kia. That has to assume that Tesla’s sales rebound and resume growing at a high clip while sales of these other automakers stagnate or even decline, or it has to take future revenue and profits from AI, robotics or unicorn kisses.

One of the stock stories of the past decade is how much TSLA ran and climbed and climbed the stock charts. As it did, the above arguments were made in different forms, and we published views on these points from time to time as we tracked Tesla’s rise. So, these points are nothing new, but now there is more question of where Tesla’s sales are going. And there’s always the question of what the future brings, especially when it comes to big unknowns like AI, robotics, and new robots.

Although, all that said, I have to admit that I have a hard time right now seeing Tesla as worth more than Ford, GM, Stellantis, Honda, Volkswagen, BMW, BYD, Hyundai, and Kia combined. These automakers have started electrifying on a large scale, have their own R&D programs, and have many loyal customers sticking with them. Tesla’s path to 50% annual sales growth has been vague, uncertain, and even concerning – and that’s for the next few years, let alone the next 5 or 6. Other than that, it’s hard for me to see the Tesla FSD approach being. succeed soon, if ever. Despite all that, the imbalance in the stock market is becoming more uncertain, volatile, and it is difficult to see development.

I could be wrong. Many have been wrong in the past on Tesla and TSLA. But I saw clear reasons to believe in Tesla’s path to 2020, or even 2023. I wrote about it for years (since 2012) and I basically expected what happened to happen. Looking ahead, it’s even harder to get comfortable with massive growth plans and unprecedented AI enabling unprecedented profits. We will see. At the same time, though, the data and charts above make me worry for anyone heavily invested in the TSLA dream, and make me think a crash could be coming.