McLaren got it at Red Bull – but not where it needs it most

McLaren has the strongest evidence of where it has got at Red Bull in 2024, but also where it is still sorely lacking.

Since an extreme season opener in Bahrain that exposed the low-speed bottlenecks the team needs another year or so to clear, McLaren’s 2024 has steadily improved.

As expected, it performed well in tracks that emphasize mid-range and high-speed performance. McLaren had the fourth fastest car in Saudi, the third fastest car in Australia, and when it came to one lap, the second fastest car in Japan – based on qualifying.

The fact that it was also more than a tenth and a half closer to Red Bull in the first sector at Suzuka shows that McLaren has withdrawn more from the middle advantage and the top speed of Red Bull.

But it was less competitive in the second sector compared to 2023, and far less in the third sector. The slow-speed hairpin and chicane, and even the long stretch are not particularly aerodynamically efficient, yet prove problematic.

And the biggest reality check came in the race, in which Lando Norris finished 30 seconds behind Verstappen – a deficit more than 10 seconds worse than last year.

But what is more concerning is that both Ferraris were more powerful at race speed, which showed that Ferrari has achieved great success in high speed performance and tire management.

McLaren was a little disappointed with his pace in Suzuka overall. Team principal Andrea Stella admitted Ferrari was always winning while Norris said Ferrari was faster. So why such a strong Saturday before a less interesting Sunday?

More likely because new tires and low fuel can mask any car’s weaknesses, with the Ferrari seemingly having little difficulty increasing its speed at one lap. Norris was also very pleased with his qualifying performance:

“We just made it, I put in really tight laps, made us look really good, and (the race) came back to reality.”

The gaps are small, which means that Saturday’s order can change based on an underperformance or underperformance, but on Sunday over the full race distance, a truer line-up emerges.

“On the new softer tyre, we can reduce some of the limitations that we currently have such as low speed,” McLaren team boss Andrea Stella said.

“When you have new rubber, new soft rubber with a lot of grip, the corner is very short, you have the grip to compensate for some of the weaknesses, and we can defend from this point of view. We didn’t lose a lot of time at the hairpin, or in other high-speed corners below.

“But (in racing) when you’re on a harder compound – and then every lap the tire loses a tenth, so 10 laps on your tire is one second slower – then I think this exposes the weakness of the car a bit more.

“That’s why in the race we suffered a little more than qualifying.”

It was already clear on the opening race that Ferrari had the edge of McLaren but to come from behind and beat them in Sunday’s Grand Prix, at a track that finished 20 seconds behind McLaren last year, is a great confirmation of Ferrari’s progress and small. a blow to McLaren’s.

It is clear that McLaren has improved, but unlike last year, its strength on a track like this is no longer enough to overcome its existing weaknesses.

“You can do something against Ferrari at (Sunday’s) level of competition if you’re on a track where you can put people behind,” Stella said.

“Here the damage is very large and more is possible, the last step is usually to drive the car unless something really goes wrong.

“I don’t think much more was possible to finish on the podium exactly. Maybe with Lando if we stopped trying to finish on the podium, we could have finished ahead of Leclerc.

That’s a reference to the decision to beat Norris early in the second stint, a call that meant he pitted at the same time as Leclerc who dropped one. McLaren’s aim was to try to outrun Sainz’s other Ferrari but it meant Norris was holed up behind Leclerc for the rest of the race. Winning third meant slipping to fifth place.

A late mistake from Oscar Piastri meant second McLaren finished behind Aston Martin and Mercedes, but that does not affect the conclusion that McLaren is currently the third F1 team.

“Just 10 seconds behind (Ferrari) is a good job for us – it was 30 to win, which as bad as I felt, it wasn’t as bad as I saw from my eyes,” stressed Norris.

“We expected more and maybe that was a false hope (after qualifying) and that’s why it feels more difficult.

“If we had started further back we would have been happy with P5.”

Stella believes it would be a good result to finish a third year in the championship – if so, it would be only the second time he has achieved that finish since 2012. The other was 2020, the year Ferrari dropped the ball a lot.

The competition is huge now. So, while McLaren would like a better winter development, considering how it ended last year, being in the mix for the best combination is enough as long as the curve is improved.

This is a solid foundation for 2024 – if only a foundation. It will still mean dips, for example the next race in China with slower corners could hurt McLaren in its current form. That’s consistent with what it’s already looking to improve.

But if Suzuka is the pinnacle then McLaren’s old powers need to be revived a bit too, especially as that was the circuit that Stella admitted after qualifying where McLaren thought it could compete with Ferrari not just be top-three.

“It becomes a race for improvement,” Stella said of the fight with Ferrari. “I think one step of improvement is not enough, because it will also improve.

“But last year we were able to beat our competitors, in the season we brought more time than our competitors.

“So, this remains the goal and as long as we see that what we plan to bring real direction happens, then we are happy, because we know that we are on our way, which we think is strong.”