Rivian Sales Up 71% in Q1 – But Can It Get 10x Current Sales?

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I just reported that several automakers saw their electric vehicle sales increase significantly in the US in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023. Why not include Rivian in that? Well, Rivian is a different beast, and it seemed more appropriate to discuss Rivian separately.

As you can see in this first chart, Q1 2024 sales are above Q1 2023 sales, and Q1 2023 sales are Q1 2022 sales. (Q1 2022 was its first quarter of sales.) That looks like a lot of growth. And, like the automakers I discussed earlier, it seems only fair to look at year-over-year sales, and we shouldn’t put too much weight on the change from Q4 to Q1 as comparing these quarters is often a fool’s errand. However, if you look at the long-term chart of quarterly sales, it is not the most uplifting chart for a company that many would like to see “go the way of Tesla.”

As we can see, the peak of Rivian’s sales was in the 3rd quarter of last year, with 15,564 shipments. I’m not sure if anyone expects Rivian to reach Tesla’s sales level – about 2 million cars a year currently. However, 10× growth would be a good goal, especially with its large market, low price R2 and R3 coming (see here and here). Last quarter’s sales were 13,588. Multiplying that by ten would be 135,880 sales per quarter, and 543,520 sales per year. That seems like a very reasonable goal for Rivian, but it will depend a lot on R2 and R3.

Rivian has a few great things going for it. For one, it recently won the #1 spot in auto brand trust, according to research from Consumer Reports. That’s the title Tesla has ever held. Second, Rivian vehicles gain access to Tesla’s Supercharger network. Third, there is a tons of Tesla owners in the United States. Many of those owners will return to Tesla when they go to buy a new car again. Many, however, will want to try something new, and Rivian would be a logical choice for a good chunk of them, given that it’s another pure EV company, given that it offers different vehicle classes that people may prefer, and given the fact that Rivian has. I’ve gotten rave reviews and great customer loyalty.

What is your opinion? What do you expect from Rivian in the rest of 2024? Do you think Rivian can 10x its current sales eventually? If Rivian can 10x its quarterly sales, when do you think it can achieve that?