everything you need to know about the future electric car that could replace the $25,000 Model 2

Originally announced in 2019 to be released on the road in 2020, Tesla’s robotaxis is still not a reality in 2024. But Elon Musk has not abandoned the project, on the contrary. On August 8, 2024, Tesla should reveal this popular 100% car. Let’s see what it has in store for us, and where it would fit in Tesla’s full lineup, especially against Tesla’s $25,000 Model 2.

Not only since 2024 have we been hearing about Tesla’s robotaxi, which should revolutionize the way we get around. Already 5 years ago during the famous Independence Day of 2019, Elon Musk presented to the world his idea of ​​a fully autonomous car, intended for car sharing and which can bring tens of thousands of dollars a year to its owner.

Back to reality half a decade later, at its best for now, level 2 driving assistance coming out of beta. Of course, this is not the first delay by Tesla on this topic, and maybe not the last, but we are seriously approaching an important date in this autonomous movement: Elon Musk has announced an event on August 8, 2024, presenting Tesla’s Robotaxi.

This comes just a few hours after rejecting the latest information announcing the abandonment of the $25,000 Tesla that we knew under the name Model 2, and which would be a possible car that would push Tesla in another direction in terms of sales levels.

So we will return to this famous Robotaxi and what is expected from it, without covering the future Tesla intended for mass production. These two cars may eventually become one, and have their destinies closely linked.

Tesla Robotaxi: 1 million on the road in 2020

Tesla’s CEO is well known for making optimistic announcements (too?). When it comes to driving freely, you always allow yourself to promise things that take a long time to come true, and therefore are taken less and less. Since 2017 at least, Elon Musk has confirmed that 100% autonomous driving is coming soon.

The idea of ​​making cars without pedals or steering wheels was announced in 2019 during the famous Independence Day, so 5 years ago. At the same time, it was said that there will be 1 million robotaxis on the road in 2020. Musk was talking at the time about the Tesla Model 3 that would be eligible for the FSD beta, which itself was released in a very limited way. group in the summer of 2020.

As history shows, not all of these predictions came true. Instead, FSD is out of beta, but still only level 2 driver support. We are still far from complete freedom where the responsibility would fall on the car manufacturer and not on the driver anymore. In addition, according to what was said at Tesla’s Independence Day, there are 3 steps towards full independence:

1. Have full performance
2. Full performance and no need for the driver to pay attention
3. Get approval from management

As of today, we are starting the first step, as there are still many cases where the Tesla FSD does not work. When Tesla CEO announced that Robotaxi will be delivered on August 8, 2024, so maybe we should lower our expectations about what has to be released this summer at the end of the event.

A car without a steering wheel or pedals, really?

If when you are faced with the term robotaxi you think of a car without pedals and without a steering wheel, it is probably not the Tesla that we will soon be able to buy in Europe. Indeed, behind the robotaxi there is probably a car with the ability to move without a driver, without being sold without any means of manual control.

First of all, considering the rules when writing these lines, it would be wise to imagine such a car on the road (especially outside the USA or even outside certain cities) in the near future.. Then, the level of autonomous driving in Tesla does not really allow to produce a car that is not possible to control manually, since there are many situations that make its use impossible.

However, Tesla is not the type to refuse to present new things at the meeting, apart from being ready for sale. We remember, for example, the first meeting dedicated to the Tesla Bot, which actually presented a person disguised as a robot, due to the inability to show hardware capable of anything at that time.

So we could have a delivery of a robotaxi that obviously doesn’t work in any way, and then Tesla would announce its plan to manufacture and sell such a vehicle in the coming years. Given the usual delay between the first meeting and the release of the model – should we remember that it took more than 4 years between the announcement and delivery of the Cybertruck? -, the 2024 meeting could mean that a robot will hit the road for the first time by the end of the current decade..

It would also be impossible for Tesla to take advantage of the presentation of the robotaxi to kill two birds with one stone, by giving pride of place to another car that would share many similarities with this robotaxi…

Could the popular “Tesla Model 2” be the real star of the year?

It has already been noted in the biography of Elon Musk that The platform that would make the robot axis will be shared by the “$25,000 Tesla”, which is aimed at the mass market. But in order to give the big numbers, Tesla has unfortunately fallen behind. Of course we remember the extreme ambitions that showed that Tesla aimed to produce 20 million cars in 2030, almost 11 times more than the production of 2023.

To achieve this, two conditions must normally be met:

1. Tesla must have enough battery supply for 20 million cars, and factories to produce them
2. Tesla must have enough customers to sell all this production

The first point above is one that has backfired in recent days, mainly because of political decisions in the USA prevented the Chinese giant CATL from establishing itself in North America. In December 2023, the US Internal Revenue Service excluded Chinese companies from benefiting from a tax credit that would allow for a significant reduction in the cost of producing batteries.

The result is that while waiting for the details to be sorted out so as to possibly find a solution and still benefit from the tax cuts, the establishment of CATL factories is being put on hold. Until now, Tesla in the United States has not been able to produce cells of the 4680 format in sufficient quantities to enable production in the millions, and the future giga factory in Mexico has not appeared in the world.

Et 2030 is no longer 10 years, but less than 6 years. In other words, today we are closer to 2030 than the release of the Tesla Model 3, and the American company does not have much production capacity to achieve its goals.

Regarding the second point, selling tens of millions of cars means having a price offer that can entice many customers. Yes to say thatthere is a need to offer a lower priced car than the Model 3 and Model Y which to this day remain the entry level of the brand.. This hypothetical car of the future is often called the Tesla Model 2, although this will probably not be the chosen name.

In Tesla’s biggest emerging market, China, competition is fierce in the small, affordable car segment. That’s why the need for an affordable car, which Elon Musk has already teased for years, is so great. In addition to the cost, there are many expectations in Europe and Asia around the small Tesla, because cars of 4.70 meters or more are not always useful in the city.

However, Rumors of Tesla Model 2 have stopped recently appeared, before Elon Musk himself stepped up to the plate and said it was a lie. Tesla’s chief architect, Franz von Holzhausen publicly reminded us not to believe everything we read on this topic, and to remain vigilant.as if he knew that his announcement was imminent.

This car probably makes more sense than a robotaxi because it would take Tesla to another level, of course if there is the production capacity needed. Without going far from the small electric cars that we find in China, a compact or city car from Tesla, with a price much lower than that of the Model Y or Model 3, would probably be very successful.

Recently, Rivian was again ahead of Tesla (after moving forward in the electric pick-up segment) since the Rivian R3 was revealed, and there is no doubt that Tesla will want to offer an alternative. Outside of the US, European and Chinese manufacturers are gradually offering more compact models as they grab market share, increasing their production volume. So what does Tesla have in store for us to face all this competition?

What’s next for Tesla?

Despite Elon Musk’s recent predictions, we’ve seen that record shares don’t always follow at Tesla. The first one in 2024 was also half-mast compared to the previous ones, and we have to go back to the beginning of 2022 to find a worse situation in terms of delivery.

The last two Tesla vehicles, the Semi and the Cybertruck, are not yet in high production levels, and there is no doubt that the pick-up will be a priority in the coming years in the United States. In other words, there is still no chance of making a Robotaxi or Tesla Model 2 on American soil.

The Fremont and Shanghai Gigafactories are at full capacity, while those in Austin and Berlin still have spare space. But in Berlin, there is no question of producing anything other than Model Ys at the moment, destined for the European market. In the case of Austin, Texas, everything is done to produce cells and Cybertrucks, and there is no surplus available to use a new vehicle.

If Tesla’s latest known plans are to be believed, factory expansion is well planned in China and Europe, but it’s also behind schedule. We are thinking, for example, of Giga Berlin, which must face the reluctance of the locals, when it is not the target of sabotage or protests that go against the wishes of the brand.

The Robotaxi was undoubtedly intended for the American market initially, and without a new factory on the continent allowing for low-cost production, it’s hard to imagine that the vehicle presented next August will become a reality any time soon. Work on Mexico’s Gigafactory is currently not progressing, and the goal of being operational by 2026 appears elusive.

At any rate, Tesla will present the Robotaxi on August 8, 2024, attacking a market that could be twice as large as that of the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y if we believe the figures shared during Investor Day 2023.. There is still a big unknown when we think about the price: for the 12,000 dollars asked today for the FSD in the USA, how much does the car cost that cannot otherwise be driven?

It’s hard to imagine it being below the $25,000 mark, unless it’s a car available for purchase, but is only intended to be a subscription driven Tesla autonomous, like Waymo besides -Atlantic? We still have a few months to wait to get all the details.