From one surplus to another: is there a lot of gas now? – Energy and Resources

The worst winter is over for Italy and Europe, which would have left us without gas, and which instead has left us with it. maximum storage capacity. In Italy, in particular, at the end of April 11 billion cubic meters (Gcm) are still available, of which 4.6 make up the country’s strategic reserve. The situation changed compared to what was assumed last September. Two factors have contributed to achieving this result: severe weather and not a complete interruption of the flow of gas from Russia.

At this point we ask ourselves: How will the preparations for next winter go? Will Italy be able to replenish its stocks to a minimum of 90% by November 1 (as required by current law)? The answer is yes. Well, if you want, it can even reach a theoretical 100% fill level..

In the inclusive period between May and October 2023 we will have Indeed they need about 6 Gmc of gas to fill the reservoir up to the level of 17 Gmc. For that amount of gas what will be used during the relevant term must be added. In 2021, this consumption was 27.6 Gmc.

However, since over the last seven months Italy has used almost 20% less gas, it is possible to assume. two events: one in which the reduction in consumption continues to stay at 20%, and the second in which this reduction is half. In all, in the next few months they will be in Italy so between 28 and 31 Gmc of natural gas is required.

Taking as reference average shipments from each source of supply from January 1 to April 24, 2023, Italy will have about 36 Gmc of natural gas in its consumption. This is a huge amount.

Even assuming that nothing comes through the new Piombino reprocessing plant and that Moscow closes the pipeline, Italy will drop to 31.6 Gmc. Also in this scenario, we will be above 31 Gmc which should include higher gas demand in the next six months.

So it seems obvious that natural gas supply to Italy will not run a big risk next winter. At the same time, it must be considered as such Natural gas prices in Europe are 90% lower than the daily peaks reached last August, but they are still 2.5 times higher than pre-crisis levels, indicating that the crisis has not clearly passed. But it is also true that it could be worse.