Tesla in decline: Analyst expects Tesla’s market leadership in the electric car industry to end soon |  07/15/22

Tesla in decline: Analyst expects Tesla’s market leadership in the electric car industry to end soon | 07/15/22


For a long time, Tesla was the undisputed market leader in electric cars. At the same time, however, traditional car manufacturers have also understood that the future belongs to electronic mobility. According to Bank of America research, growing competition is becoming a problem for top dog Tesla. If analyst John Murphy has his way, GM and Ford could soon overtake Elon Musk’s group.

• Tesla is still the market leader in the e-mobility sector
• Some car manufacturers are switching to electric vehicles
• Bank of America sees Ford and GM overtaking Tesla in the medium term

The topic of e-mobility is undoubtedly associated with the American founder Tesla. Every year he saw where other car manufacturers focused on their combustion engines Elon Musk shift towards electric vehicles ahead. Although he initially smiled and avoided bankruptcy quarter after quarter, the situation has now completely turned around. There is no way around electric cars in the future. The EU recently decided that from 2035 petrol and diesel cars will no longer be registered. Good times for Tesla, one might imagine. Not really, because the competition has now realized that traditional cars will be obsolete in the foreseeable future. Many traditional car manufacturers now have their own electric cars in their portfolio or are working to adapt their products – and they are catching up with the market leader Tesla.

According to BofA, Tesla’s market share could decline significantly by 2025

But that’s not all: As Bank of America predicts in its annual “Car Wars” study, American automakers Ford and General Motors should soon overtake Tesla – by 2025 to be exact. Analyst John Murphy admits in a report that Tesla’s current market share of more than 70 percent could decrease to around eleven percent in the next three years. The expert sees the two American companies GM and Ford with 15 percent each, which would put them ahead of Musk’s company.

Tesla expansion too slow, not enough product

The problem that Murphy discovered in Tesla and which should cause the competition to pass in the medium term is the lack of the company’s products, which are also being expanded very slowly. According to The Detroit News, the analyst says about Tesla CEO Elon Musk: “He is introducing new products at a very slow pace. He does not have a complete product portfolio, so there is a big opportunity for other manufacturers to fill the gap and catch up.” Instead, there would be delays in the electronics company, such as the announced Cybertruck, whose production has already been postponed several times. According to Murphy, this slow expansion would cause Tesla to fall further and further behind in the next few years.

For Ford, on the other hand, Bank of America predicts that the replacement rate of car models in the automaker’s showrooms will be 23.7 percent in the years 2023 to 2026, which will match the highest rate in the automotive industry. General Motors would have a turnover rate of 22.4 percent, slightly below the industry average of 23 percent. Here the two competitors would have the opportunity to expand their market share accordingly.

missed an opportunity?

Murphy criticizes Tesla for not raising more money in the capital markets earlier than the company had the opportunity to do. That way you could grow faster and “close the door”. Instead, Musk would not act fast enough: “He didn’t see what was happening in the market. He had so much hubris that he could never be caught, they couldn’t do what he did, but they do,” he said. Murphy.

Tesla is old

Accordingly, Murphy summarizes at the Automotive Journalists Association event in Detroit: “Tesla’s dominance in the EV market, especially in the USA, is over. The whole thing will clearly change in a different direction in the next four years”, as Cars. News quotes the analyst. Now it remains to be seen if the expert will ultimately be correct in his assessment.

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