F1 chase duel: Who is the best in Shanghai?

The Shanghai International Circuit is a track that has a little bit of everything. Five fast corners, five slow, four with long radii, six with short. With two long rows. It all sounds like Suzuka. And yet these two methods are fundamentally different.

At Suzuka, sections of the track are laid bare. Sector 1 with its fast curves. 2nd mixed sector. Sector 3 with a lot of excitement and a narrow chicane. Everything is a mess in Shanghai. Slower corners follow faster ones. There is no union sector. And in Shanghai the front tire is the weakest link in the chain. In Suzuka you have to protect the rear tires more.

Charles Leclerc judges according to the diagram of the route: “On paper, the Shanghai course should suit us better than Suzuka.” Ferrari were the second team in Japan. However, the third place of the World Cup expects more for the Chinese GP. “Red Bull is favorite again, but I think we can be a little bit closer.”

Fear of grain tires

Now comes the pitch. Until the last time it was seen in 2019, Shanghai was one of the race tracks where tires were used. Especially in cold temperatures. If there’s one thing Red Bull doesn’t like, it’s this behavior of the tires. Look at Las Vegas 2023, look at Melbourne 2024. The Red Bulls put so much energy into the tires that under certain conditions the ball separates from the tread. The car then rolls on this rubbery residue as if on ice.

An unknown factor in the preparation was the condition of the asphalt. Even Pirelli could not say what effect the track surface, which was five years old, had on the grip. In addition, the ridges were balanced in triangles. And the asphalt pores were closed over large areas in many places with a layer of liquid asphalt. “We all don’t know if there’s more slippage there or if there’s more grip,” wondered Leclerc.

Ferrari traditionally has few problems with the grain thing. In addition, there are not as many fast corners as in Suzuka. Even if Ferrari has improved there, Red Bull is still the benchmark of all things in these sections. And since the recent Suzuka upgrade, the RB20 also sets the tone in slower corners.

McLaren lowers expectations

McLaren will not enter the fifth round of this season with any hope. The British racing team had to line up well behind Red Bull and Ferrari on its parade route, Suzuka. “Maybe a fourth would be possible if things went perfectly, but nothing more,” reflects Lando Norris.

So the Englishman has only a few hopes: “Our expectations are not as high as in Suzuka. I see we are fighting again with Mercedes and Aston Martin.” McLaren doesn’t like long, medium speed or slow corners. Like T2, T3, T6, T9, T11, T13 and T14. “This has been our weak point for a few years now,” Norris reflects.

At least the McLaren driver sees light at the end of the tunnel: “We know what we need to improve. But that requires at least one improvement. If we succeed in that, then victory is possible.” Norris then puts his bold announcement into perspective: “That comes with a big IF.”

On paper, good for Mercedes

On paper, Mercedes may also have hope for the Chinese doctor. Silver Arrows have always been strong in Shanghai. In 2012, Mercedes took their first win in modern times with Nico Rosberg. The current W15 has more lanes where the front tire is placed under greater strain.

But Mercedes has been careful with the forecast. The car shows a lot of situations. And depending on the configuration, sometimes it can make one type of curve and sometimes another better than the other. Uncertain weather is not good news for Mercedes either. It is expected to stay dry on Friday and Sunday and rain on Saturday. With the risk that Mercedes will show two faces again.

With the AMR24, Aston Martin has improved significantly in the straights and fast corners, but has lost ground in the slower ones. The combination of creases is neither good nor bad for fifth place in the World Cup. Two long DRS zones handle green cars. The DRS effect has been more effective than last year. A second look at the Suzuka upgrade will also show what the new parts really are.