William Buick to take his time in the Ottoman Fleet

William Buick to take his time in the Ottoman Fleet

15:00 Newmarket bet365 Earl of Sefton Stakes (1 mile furlong – Rowley course)

We hope to continue the form that brought us the 14/1 Aintree winner, Sans Bruit (5/1 SP), as well as two 40/1 places (Glvin and Ain’t That A Shame) in the Grand National.

Hopefully we can transfer that success to this important Flat meeting at Newmarket, which includes trials for the Guineas meeting at the beginning of May.

First of all I look at the Earl of Sefton Stakes, which is run over a unique distance of one mile and one kilometre, and as usual I have used previous winning styles to reduce the field to a more manageable number:

  • 16/16 – Had won over a mile before
  • 15/16 – Favorites placed in the top three
  • 13/16 – Last run 5 or more months ago
  • 13/16 – Had raced at the track before (7 wins)
  • 12/16 – 4 or 5 years old
  • 11/16 – Won at least 3 times in the past
  • 11/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter on betting
  • 10/16 – Had won over 1m1f or more previously
  • 9/16 – He had won a Group/Listed race before
  • 7/16 – Ran Newmarket last time out
  • 6/16 – Available in 8 (3) or 10 (3) stalls
  • 4/16 – Last won
  • 3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
  • 5/16 – Favorites to win
  • 2/16 – Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam
  • 3/16 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
  • 4/16 – Raised by William Buick
  • 1/16 – Winners from 1 store
  • 6 of the last 13 winners came from between 2-4 shops (inc.)
  • SP’s winning average in the last 10 races is 9/2

Ottoman fleet won this past season from a top mark of one pound and had a similar winter in Dubai for three games which produced one and three seconds.

The five-year-old has three wins and one second over this course, including winning this Group 3 last year with overtime.

Charlie Appleby has his line in good form with six wins from his last 18 runners (including six winners) for a 33% win rate, and the presence of William Buick in the saddle only strengthens his prospects.

I expect Buick to put its Ottoman Fleet behind the first four or five runners before advancing to the final stage.

recommended best bet: Ottoman Fleet at 15:00 at Newmarket

right there he has won three of his last five starts in 2023, all over a mile, so this extra ground is not unknown territory.

On breeding he should enjoy a top step in trip and has already won at Group 3 level, so class should not be an issue.

Four-year-old Roger Varian won first time out last season, and the only downside is his lack of experience on the Rowley course.

Royal Rhyme he has won four of his seven starts in the field, but none of those have been higher than the listed average. Most of those wins have been longer, although he has won over shorter distances.

Karl Burke’s goal has been quiet in the first few weeks of the season, so it may take a run to see Royal Rhyme’s best performance, despite being the forecast favourite.

Based on his style and passion for the course I recommend a winning bet Ottoman fleet follow up on last season’s success in this race.